MDGs Millennium Development Goals
NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNICEF United Nations International Children's Fund
WB World Bank
WFTU World Federation of Trade Unions
WRF World Rehabilitation Fund
WTO World Trade Organization
Chapter 1. Rebuilding the value of labour and promoting global rebalancing
1.1 Slow, fragile and unbalanced recovery of the global economy
World economic recovery has split into three speeds. We have moved from a “two-speed” recovery to a “three-speed” recovery.
——IMF, April 2013
The global economy continues to recover, led by developing countries and emerging economies, due to the stimulus policies of different economies and with the easing of the European debt crisis and the averting of the “fiscal cliff” in the United States. However, the foundation for recovery is still fragile: the pace is faltering and there are obvious signs of imbalances.
Global economic recovery has further slowed down due to the lacklustre economic situation, the weakening effects of stimulus policies and the impact of economic restructuring in emerging economies and developing countries.
According to the International Money Fund(IMF) prognoses of July 2013, the growth rate of world output for 2013 is expected to be 3.1%, the same level as in 2012. It is forecast to reach 3.8% in 2014, 0.1 percentage points less than in 2011. The growth rate for emerging and developing economies is predicted to be 5% in 2013, only 0.1 percentage points higher than in 2012, and then to reach 5.4% in 2014. The growth rate for the US is foreseen to be 1.7% in 2013, 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2012, reaching 2.7% in 2014. The economy of the Eurozone continues to shrink in 2013. Its growth rate is expected to remain at –0.6% as in 2012, before turning positive to reach 0.9% in 2014. It is worth noting that the IMF obviously toned down its forecasts in July compared with January: the predicted growth rate of world output in 2013 is 0.4 percentage points lower, while for 2014 it is 0.2 percentage points lower. Growth rates in emerging markets and developing economies were scaled down by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. US growth rates for 2013 and 2014 were reduced by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points. Those of the Eurozone for the same two years were cut by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points.