It was no coincidence that in June 2013 the World Bank also revised downward its forecast for global economic growth. It pointed out that despite decreasing fluctuations in the global economy, given the shrinking economy of the Eurozone and the impact of economic slowdown in some developing countries, the pace of global economic growth would slow further. The Bank therefore revised its expectations for global economic growth downwards. It forecast global economic growth of 2.2% in 2013, lower than the 2.3% of 2012 and the January forecast of 2.4%. Its forecast for global economic growth in 2014 was 3.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the January forecast. In particular, its forecast growth rate for high-income countries in 2013 was 1.2%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the January estimate. Its forecast for developing countries in 2013 was 5.1%, much lower than the previous prediction of 5.5%. Its forecasts for 2014 and 2015 were also 0.1 percentage points lower than before.
With the easing of the European debt crisis and the averting of the “fiscal cliff” in the US, the risks facing the global economy in the short term have been considerably lowered. However, among high-income countries, the intensity and time frame of European recovery remain uncertain; there is still a high risk that Japan and the US might implement a robust fiscal stimulus without medium-term fiscal consolidation, and the timing of the exit from such policies is also uncertain; over-loose monetary policies, competitive monetary devaluation and protectionist measures on the part of some countries have had an impact on the recovery of other economies. Many emerging market economies will face pressure in terms of macro-regulation and risks of economic fluctuations resulting from continuous net capital inflows and exchange rate appreciation. All in all, the foundation for global economic recovery is still fragile. In this highly globalized economy where any single move can have an overall impact, the occasional incident bearing potential risks in high-income countries and developing countries alike can carry great uncertainties for global economic recovery.
The global economy is in an increasingly multi-layered recovery. There is great disparity between the recovery of developed countries and that of non-developed countries. Most emerging market economies and developing countries have embarked on the path of recovery. With relatively robust economic growth, they have become the engines of the global economy. However, the pace of economic recovery in developed countries is relatively slow (see chart 1-1). According to the latest economic forecasts of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), real global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% this year and 4% in 2014. The GDP of OECD countries is expected to grow by 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2014. The GDP of non-OECD countries is expected to grow by 5.5% this year and 6.2% in 2014. The growth rate of non-OECD countries is expected to be 4.6 times that of OECD countries in 2013, and 2.7 times in 2014.